Yes, yes, Trafalgar is a Republican-leaning polling house, but they’re also usually very accurate. And this poll offers margins so wide and so non-partisan that it’s impossible to conclude anything but that Joe Biden and Chuck Schumer have positioned themselves in a box canyon over the reaction to the Supreme Court leak in Dobbs.
Biden in particular refused to rebuke protesters that targeted the homes of Supreme Court justices, aligning himself with a view shared by a whopping 16% of the American electorate:
When 76% of the American electorate agrees on anything, it’s usually best to get behind it when possible, and preferably ahead of it. Biden certainly had his opportunities to lead on this point, but he and Jen Psaki decided to take a pass until the heat got a little too much even from a friendly media industry.
As one might surmise from this topline figure, opposition to the Ruth Sent Us targeting of Supreme Court justices has to be significantly bipartisan. But just how bipartisan is eye-popping:
How radical was Biden’s tacit approval of these protests? Only 21.4% of Democrats believe they are acceptable. Exactly two-thirds of Democratic respondents find them unacceptable. Unaffiliated voters largely line up with the toplines, 18.5/75.1 opposed to the targeting of SCOTUS residences for these protests.
Biden gets more specific bad news out of this poll as well. When asked whether his refusal to condemn these protests contributed to lawlessness and/or violence, a majority of respondents (52.3%) said yes, with only 27.5% saying it would have no impact; only 10% thought Biden’s statements did anything to discourage violence or criminal behavior. Among Democrats, the numbers look somewhat better, at 27.7/39.2/16.2 respectively … which hardly looks like any endorsement for Biden’s responses. Among indies, the split was 54.7/29.8/7.0.
Not that these splits would change in a slanted poll, but the sample is worth noting. The split was 39.3% Democrat, 35.6% Republican, and 25.1% independent — a bit of an oversample for both parties, but more so for Democrats. Women also get a slight oversample here, comprising 53.3% of the survey respondents.
This isn’t the only polling showing Biden and Schumer walking their party into a trap, either. A confidential memo to the America First Policy Institute prepared by Scott Rasmussen uses his existing national polling on the topic to conclude that overturning Roe creates a massive political problem for Democrats. It’s true that voters express support for keeping Roe, but only because they don’t have a firm grasp on what that means.
“Seventy-seven (77%) of voters don’t know what overturning that decision would mean,” the memo explains, noting that 41% think it would make abortion illegal, and the other 36% aren’t sure of the impact. More importantly, though, a very large majority want those decisions made by themselves or their legislatures. “Sixty five percent,” the memo continues, “think abortion laws should be established by voters and their elected representatives.” Only 18% prefers “the status quo,” Rasmussen writes, which the draft Dobbs decision would eliminate. And 73% acknowledge that “there are two lives to consider” in abortion — “the woman’s and the unborn child.”
Given the radical nature of Schumer’s bill, Rasmussen predicts that Democrats will paint themselves into a very extreme corner by forcing a vote on it. We’ll have more on that later as well, but suffice it to say that the American electorate has already concluded that Biden has already painted himself into a corner with the radicals on this issue. Schumer might end up preventing any exit from it for the rest of his caucus. The only question is whether Republicans can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by interfering with this Democratic meltdown.